Even if Kyiv Falls, Moscow and Putin Still Lose

On Feb. 22, Cossack Gundi, a British national turned Ukrainian marine I’d been following for a few weeks, tweeted as tensions grew in Eastern Europe, “Going dark on social media … It’s been a pleasure, everyone,” along with an image of Jim Carrey’s character, Truman, from “The Truman Show.” The words “And in case I don’t see you, good afternoon, good evening and good night” frame Carrey’s smiling face from above and below. It was perhaps the eeriest tweet I’d ever read. 

A mere 30 hours later, as my phone’s radar app displayed Ukraine’s airspace suddenly clear of planes, and desperate tweets of bombings and invasion across the country filled my Twitter feed, I thought surely Gundi would die. 

The 19 soldiers, journalists, civilians, internet sleuths and politicians populating my custom “Ukraine” Twitter list would soon be gone too. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa, Lviv — the cities I’d come to know through their accounts would fall within days.

And yet while Putin’s invasion has come already with immense and irreversible tragedy, 10 days after Gundi’s farewell tweet, Russia’s military has been humiliated; its already-struggling economy continues to freefall; and Putin faces increasing opposition from within his own country and from his own friends.

More significantly, America and its allies are stronger and more united than they have been in more than half a century. 

Cossack Gundi still lives. My 19 Twitter “informants” live. Ukraine lives. Democracy lives. 

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was ample cause for concern over the gradual degradation of democratic values worldwide. 

If Jan. 6 showed Americans anything, it’s that democracy is a fragile thing meant to be protected at any and all cost. 

Now, the democracies of the world have turned their literal and figurative guns towards Moscow, acknowledging that fragility, and uniting systematically in a way none thought possible. 

It’s not just America’s usual partners in Europe and the Pacific sending lethal aid to Ukraine or imposing crippling sanctions on Russia either. “Auth-curious” countries Hungary and Turkey (whose leaders, Victor Orbán and Tayyip Erdoğan, have become increasingly close to Putin) have played ball in the last week with the more liberal democracies. 

Orbán announced on Feb. 26 that Hungary would “support all the sanctions” imposed by the European Union against Russia. Erdoğan, though not agreeing to sanctions, has limited Russia’s access to the strategically-significant Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits that allow access to the Black Sea. 

Though democracy in Hungary, Turkey, the U.S. and other nations is far from saved, the strength and resolve of Ukraine’s people and, by extension, democratic values, have reaffirmed democracies’ delicate dominance over the creeping ethnonationalism of those like Putin.

Prior precedent be damned. 

 At the slightest whiff of war in Europe, gone was our allies’ rhetoric about their need for greater independence. 

The once-bulletproof Nord Stream 2 pipeline was scrapped, Russia was cut off from SWIFT and even “neutral” nations like Switzerland and Sweden joined in on the super-bloc stripping of Kremlin assets. 

None of today’s coordinated action would be possible without the leadership of Washington D.C. After four tumultuous years of uncertainty on the international stage and several of our own dips into darkness, America has emerged against as the flagbearer of globalized liberal democracy. 

Just days ago in yesterday’s world, large numbers of Americans would have agreed that when push came to shove, the U.S., pressured by popular opinion, would choose to preserve economy over ideology in event of a Russian invasion.

There might be some sparse sanctions and aid, but nothing like we’re seeing today. 

But, according to a CNN poll on Feb. 28, 83% of Americans (practically unheard of numbers) agree on tougher sanctions against Moscow and the two parties (save for the usual bad actors) have become relatively unified in renewed opposition to a familiar foe, conveying that, in at least some sense, America the good and just and honorable prevails. The status quo of looking to Uncle Sam’s leadership falls once again into place. 

Putin’s dreams for a disunified NATO and a disunified America have been shattered by his own hand. Without his invasion of democratic, liberal, America and Europe-loving Ukraine, what would have fused back together the breaking bonds between allied nations? 

The answer is nothing. Nothing would have, save for war. 

Extraterrestrials (and China) beware. America and its allies have reunited to once again become Earth’s mightiest heroes. 

We had our “Civil War” moments. But when the time came to face the greatest of evils, cooperation and common good prevailed. 

The world order Putin feared is here and out to get him. Crippling sanctions, billions in aid to Ukraine, massive increases in defense budgets and a heightened sense of unity, all a product of Putin, today stands more than ready to challenge his regime as well as any other that aspires to unjustly invade a sovereign and democratic nation. 

Ironically, we’ll have Putin to thank for later peace as the enemies of tomorrow won’t dare oppose (at least militarily) America and its many, many friends.